The topic of mobile video is often greeted with a mix of interest and skepticism; both attitudes are well founded. The criticism is typically based on the claim that video telephony has been an up-and-coming trend for nearly two decades, and that it is perfectly justified to question whether it is going to achieve massive success this time around. In order to make a well-founded prediction, one must evaluate the key factors that would enable a mobile video revolution.
What the analysts say
Analyses by In-stat/MDR (May 2004) and Frost & Sullivan (January 2004) predict that by 2009, over 31 million Americans will use video messaging, generating revenues of $5.4 billion. Similar success is foreseen in Europe, with 192 million European subscribers (55% of the total) expected to be video-enabled by 2007.
Technical synergies
The key to the breakthrough of mobile video may lie in technical synergies between video and “still imaging” camera phones. Camera phones are already massively popular, with some 150 million handsets sold in 2004 (UBS). This annual sales volume is expected to grow to a staggering 646 million units by 2008 (Info Trends Research Group).
It is reasonable to assume that most of these handsets will be video-enabled. This assumption is based on the analysis of the manufacturing costs of a camera phone. Adding high-quality video capability in form of hardware IP (intellectual property) adds only 1 to 2% to the cost of the handset, since the key hardware components are already present.
As a result, one can predict that video will eventually be available in all camera phones, irrespective of the perceived added value of the function, since the impact in handset cost is negligible. New applications In many people’s minds, mobile video equals video calls, and development predictions are generally based on this assumption. Without a doubt, video calling will be one of the applications of mobile video, but many other uses exist as well.
In fact, it is likely that these “other applications” will be the true driving force behind the evolution of mobile video. At the moment, the most widely adopted video application is a camcorder function that allows users to record short video clips with the built-in camera, and to send that video message to another mobile device or a PC.
Since the recording is done in a standard video format, the initial take- off problem of “to whom can I send this?” is solved; even the first video messaging user in the world had hundreds of millions of potential receivers for the newly created message – namely, every PC on the planet. Naturally, the massive adoption of MMS-enabled phones will only add to the possibilities. Hantro Camcorder was the first video messaging application in both Europe and the US, and the application has been deployed in over a dozen countries to date.
Another application worth keeping an eye on is MobileTV, which allows users to receive digital television broadcasting with their mobile handsets. The indisputable benefits of this application are the low cost of bandwidth and a massive content base. Since MobileTV services can use non- cellular networks for broadcasting the signal, the cost of use can be very low. Furthermore, service providers do not need to become experts on mobile media content, since any digital television program source can be used. MobileTV is already a reality in countries such as Korea and Japan, where the first devices and services are now available.
In summary, mobile video technology is finally poised for a true breakthrough, but this breakthrough may not result from novel ways of implementing old concepts such as video calls. Instead, we may expect the new, truly impacting applications – the next SMS message – to develop logically from synergies with existing technology, and from the eagerness of consumers to embrace innovative applications once the availability of video-enabled next-generation hardware reaches critical mass. Keep your eyes open.
