The reach and size of the mobile infrastructure is enormous. There are over two billion mobile phones in the world, four times the number of PCs, with twice the growth rate. Wireless telephony already represents half of all communications transport services revenue globally - it has become a trillion- dollar business.
More importantly, the mobile infrastructure has finally matured and offers a viable platform for mobile applications and services: the so-called Mobile Platform. The standardized interfaces enable rapid deployment of new software, and services are increasingly independent of mobile operators and handset manufacturers.
The impact of the Mobile Platform
While watching the fast development of the Mobile Platform is exciting, tracking the new applications built on top of it is mind-boggling. This service and application layer is fast becoming an even more lucrative opportunity pool for startups than the Platform itself.
One way of realizing the impact of the Mobile Platform is to revisit the IT platform revolution in the 1980s and 1990s. It created success stories such as Microsoft, Oracle and SAP. The strength of the Mobile Platform is further demonstrated by the flocking of new vertical sectors and non-mobile players such as Google, Disney, Sybase or News Corp to the mobile ecosystem. This trend is clearly underlined by the growing mobile M&A appetite – from 43 deals in 2003 to over 140 deals within the first nine months in 2006, and the buyers are increasingly large IT firms or big companies in the mobilizing verticals.
Priming the Explosion
Phenomena of this magnitude are mainly governed by the ability of the user population to adopt and deploy new usage patterns and modes. The turning point in mobility is approaching fast, as evidenced by the current number of mobile subscribers - a third of the world's population. In the emerging markets, cell phones are replacing PCs and have become the primary means of connecting to the Internet. In the meantime, the most advanced markets are finally reaching a critical mass of users of sophisticated mobile services in multiple vertical segments in the consumer, enterprise, and industrial sectors. Case in point: the 100 millionth Symbian smart phone was just sold.
At the same time, 3G operators are starting to aggressively push all-you-can-eat subscriber plans. The adoption resistance for mobile IM, email, and other services already accepted in the PC domain is disappearing – we are witnessing the same kind of proliferation of accessible services as a few years ago when affordable broadband connections became commonplace. When the rapid adoption of mobility is combined with maturing infrastructure and pricing models that make constant use attractive (or even realistic, for that matter), we have everything required for the explosive growth of the service layers. But mobility is not only about cellular networks and handsets. As early as 10 to 15 years ago, visionaries started making bold statements that there will be a processor in most devices we use. Today this prophecy has become a reality. Now, the vision is that there would be a radio (a wireless communications enabler) in every device that has a processor in it. Our cars, appliances, and cameras first became intelligent; soon they will be connected, enabling ubiquitous interactive communication.
The Strike Zone
Mobile email is a killer application that has seen its usage double in the past six months in the US, and making its way into the enterprise IT world, the CIO’s domain. In the next phase, continuous and real-time mobile access to ERP or CRM systems leads to better performance, faster service, and better financial results. The workforce is becoming less dependent on “being in the office” in order to access information and collaborate with colleagues or customers. On the consumer front it’s all about extending the Internet 2.0 success into mobile. Staying in touch with your social network and community whilst on the move will be commonplace. The business models will migrate to “all you can eat” flat rates and/or advertising sponsored ones, which enables high-quality and high-value services to become accessible to a broad audience. The infrastructure will not only be able to serve you with your emails and IM, but also video clips, TV news etc. Advertising will be acceptable as it is relevant to the target and based on context sensitivity; it knows who you are, where you are, what time of the day it is etc. Many of the popular services and applications will likewise be context-sensitive.
The third area that is affected includes the industrial and enterprise applications of mobility, where wireless features are embedded into the environment rather than used by consumers on their handsets. Wireless functionality such as RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) and RTLS (Real Time Location Services) is increasingly being used by e.g. hospitals, which can improve their services and bottom line by locating their patients, equipment, and personnel. Transportation companies can globally track their trucks, containers, and other assets, streamlining their supply chains and operations; or security companies can deploy systems consisting of wirelessly connected sensors, video cameras, alarms etc. The applications are endless.
The fourth box in our opportunity quadrant includes wireless consumer electronics like the new Microsoft Zune, an iPod-like personal entertainment device that lets you share content wirelessly. Another example would be theTomTom device, a GPS navigator that connects through your handset to a service offering real-time and location aware data like traffic alerts including re-routing tips,alerts you of speed controlcameras in the vicinity,offers weather forecastat your destination, etc.
In short, global consumer, enterprise and industrial applications of mobility are endless – creating a plethora of exciting business and investment opportunities.
The Full Impact
Mobility has become an indispensable part of our life and society, penetrating into them through a myriad of different applications and services. In doing this, it is also diversifying the mobile communications industry into several new market segments, st making it one of the most important businesses in the 21 century.
